This, I'm afraid, is going to be a bit of a hedging forecast. The problem today is this: convective debris (read: thunderclouds, or their precursors) covers the Gorge sky right now. Thunderstorms don't mean we won't have wind; they just make the job of forecasting wind much harder. According to NOAA, the clouds will clear midday as this dreadful ridge of high pressure (that's what's caused this mind-numbing heat) shifts to the east. By evening, though, southerly flow fills in, causing more, stronger thunderstorms. That's a negative. On the positive side, as the ridge shifts east, marine air will pour into Portland. So.... It looks like we'll see 22-26 (and maybe 26-30 if everything happens just right) starting mid-afternoon.
I imagine we'll see a quick jump in Stevenson, 90 minutes of good wind in the corridor, and then a rebound at Stevenson, Doug's, Maryhill (too south today for The Wall), and Arlington.
Gradients fight convection tonight. Looks like strong thunderstorms and, counterintuitively, strong westerlies. Tomorrow brings 28-32 through much of the Gorge. Flow will be southerly, so best spots will be Doug's/Rowena, Avery, Celilo (late) and Roosevelt. Maybe, just maybe we will get lucky and see the corridor blow, but it looks like the marine deck may be too strong. We will see.
Another note about tomorrow... thunderstorms will die in the afternoon. Most consistent winds will be after this.
Keep in mind that if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to the storm to be struck by lightning.
Tuesday's looking like a pretty weak start. A winter-like ULL hangs off the coast, draining the strength from gradients. It looks like we'll see an afternoon jump into the 21-25 range, with the same progression described above (stevenson... etc).
Wednesday is unclear at this point. That ULL crosses the state, but it's so strong we may just see a bunch of rain. On the other hand, we may see a nuker in the way-out-east desert. I'm working Wednesday evening, so it's a moot point for me.
Alrighty... I will see you guys on the water today and tomorrow! Have a great day!
Print | posted @ Sunday, August 17, 2008 9:34 AM