Good morning sailors!
For the first time in weeks I have nothing pressing to do first thing in the morning. It's a nice feeling.
Gives me a chance to do something more than cut and paste the radio forecast over here.
I woke up this morning to a pleasant breeze blowing through my bedroom window. "Ah-hah, I thought. I don't have to get up and change the radio forecast." So, I got out of bed, had a leisurely shower, and wandered out of the house. Wind blew my hair about as I climbed into my car, still packed full of gear from Windfest. I drove down the hill and caught a view of both the flag at Wal-Mart and the river. River: flat, glassy. Wal-mart flag: standing straight out in a 15-20 breeze. So now I have to come up with a theory for that, now that it's blowing 18 at the Hatchery.
Maybe later. Psyched you out, didn't I. You thought this was going to be weather 101 today... Speaking of, CGCC is offering a meteorology class next year. One dozen cookies to anyone on the list who completes the course.
Ok. Ok. The forecast. This is great. We're starting off with a .10 gradient (actually, it was .08 an hour ago) and upper teen winds on the river. Kiters have no excuse for not being out already. Rob and Wyatt should be at the Event Site training for Gorge Games right now. The rest of you, most of whom are probably waiting for more (or in the case of Cathy, less) wind, can wait a few hours. A shortwave will pass over the gorge early or mid afternoon. This will cool Portland and send gradients climbing. We'll see winds increase first at The Hook (sorry, it's going to be gusty at the Hatch with the frontal passage), then Doug's, then Maryhill, then Arlington. I wouldn't get your panties in a bundle about driving that far east. Doug's and Rowena should be just fine, with averages in the 24-29 range from mid-afternoon on. If you're a Roosevelt addict (Ms. Ruthford of NOAA), you can head out there too. Beware of thunderstorm development. All bets are off if the skies turn foreboding. Just stay west of the storms for best wind and be prepared for instantaneous wind shutoff.
Tomorrow continues the fun, with a stronger marine push into Portland and an additional shortwave or two passing over the area. We'll probably see some variety of dawn patrol in the corridor. Afternoon winds climb into the 23-26 range.
Wednesday has an even stronger predicted marine push. That, coupled with high pressure building in off the coast, sets up 25-29 in the corridor, with less gusty conditions. Cross your fingers for those poor souls (including me) on the 41-foot Nelson-Marek "Gorgeous" during the sailboat race. That's a lot of wind for the spinnaker (or, at least for us with that spinnaker).
Ok. Here's your weather 101. Thunderstorms are caused by air lifting quickly in a given area, forming clouds (clouds are always formed by lifting air... more on that some other time) and static electricity. Normally there is a boundary layer that keeps surface air from rising quickly. The boundary breaks down in an unstable atmosphere like we had yesterday. Look at a thunderhead. You can see where the boundary has destabilized. It's characterized by the anvil-shaped top of a thunderhead (that's cumulonimbus cloud, if you're curious). Anyway, this seems to affect Gorge winds by pulling surface flow, well, off the surface and towards the low pressure at the top of the thunderhead. Remember, winds flow from high pressure to low pressure in the Gorge. So, the new theory is that you just have to stay far enough to the west (or for that matter east, if you are sailing an easterly way out in the desert) for surface flow to remain on the surface. And don't sail within a mile of a thunderhead. You could be blasted down by a stroke of lightning (probably from even farther away, but I know you people sail in thunderstorms... saw it yesterday).
Anyway, that's a really quick description. Not perfect, but good enough for Monday morning.
Well. That's what I call a forecast.
Wish I had time for that every day.
Have an awesome day, and I'll see you on the water!
Temira
p.s. If you don't have iWindsurf, use windonthewater.com. Andy over there has some killer features, along with his free sensor network. He even will send you wind text messages to your phone for free. Oh, and you can access his site on your phone, for free. Cool stuff.
Print | posted @ Monday, June 30, 2008 9:36 AM