Monday Forecast

Happy Autumn, Sailors!

As the days grow shorter (why do we say "grow shorter" - makes no sense at all) and the nights get colder, it gets harder and harder to climb out of my warm bed (or off my warm couch, depending on where I slept) to do the forecasts. This morning, I looked at the hatchcam to check the marine layer, and thought I saw the beginnings of an inversion. False alarm. Speaking of inversions... two-for-one steak night at Three Rivers begins one week after the first inversion.

Anyway, winter's not here yet. Yesterday, under NW upper flow, dished up a summer meal of 4.2 at The Wall. Once again, the theory is proving correct: Upper level flow NW, good at The Wall; upper level flow S/SW, no good at The Wall. Remember, and save your hydrocarbon allotment (I wish we had a hydrocarbon allotment) for something else when upper flow is southerly. One of these days you guys will convince me to add river flow predictions as well, so we know if the swell will be worth the drive (it wasn't, yesterday).

This morning isn't going to bring much in the way of wind, but as a cold front approaches this afternoon, winds may pick up into the sailable range. Once again, this is a timing issue. As cold air pushes towards Portland, gradients increase. For now, I'll say 17-20 in the late afternoon, but this is only gut instinct. Go wear yourself out doing other activities, and count windsurfing as a bonus for today (kiters, you'll have a better shot at a good day on the water).

Tuesday sets up for sailable wind from Florence to Pistol, with strongest winds at, you guessed it, Cape Sebastian. A five foot NW swell accompanies the wind; not really enough for epic conditions (TM) but enough for some lip-smacking fun. In the Gorge, leftover clouds from tonight's frontal passage set up sailable conditions from Doug's to the Wall. If clouds burn back far enough, we could see decent wind in the corridor. Afternoon winds will settle in the 22-25 range. Cross you fingers that the electricity people and the salmon people decide to send some more water down the river, because pancakes are only good for eating, not for sailing upon.

At this point, Wednesday looks light in the Gorge, but that could change. With high pressure off the southern Oregon coast,
beaches see winds in the 25+ range. Swell size remains problematic (aka "small").

Have fun playing in the Gorge today!

Print | posted @ Monday, September 24, 2007 8:34 AM