Thanks to everyone for their input on the duration of the forecast. Looks like many of you continue sailing through October. Since I'll be looking at the models every day anyway, I'll continue to put out a forecast (perhaps not a long-winded and entertaining forecast), until mid-late October. I'll continue with wind alerts for promising days as long as I have company on the water on those cold and windy days.
And on to the forecast...
When baseball season draws near its close, Mother Nature begins throwing weather curveballs as well. Our daily river sessions are driven by frontal systems, rather than by the more predictable thermal setups and high pressure west/low pressure east summer situations. Occasionally Mother Nature hits a home run, but like long balls from steroid-free players, these epic days prove hard to predict. Model runs change daily, like odds on a bookie's board, making long-term forecasting difficult.
A weak front is slowly crawling past the Gorge, like a blimp over Wrigley, as I write this forecast. High clouds will move east after its passage, giving sunny skies and sailable winds. With .12 to start the day, low clouds predicted to fill into Portland, and another front approaching this evening, the Gorge will dish up wind (better than the $5 hot dogs and $7 bad beer at the ballpark) this afternoon. Wind strength is dependent on frontal timing and low level cloud push, so I'm going to conservatively say 23-27. Upper level winds are out of the southwest, favoring the Hook, Doug's/Rowena, Celilo, Avery, and Arlington. Models suggest that wind will remain centered in the corridor, but frontal winds have a funny way of filling in all the way east. Be prepared to drive if the number come up in the desert. Leaving the corridor for desert sailing is a bit like leaving your own tailgate party for the 5-grill party put on by the guys in the lifted pickups, carving up their whole roasted pig. (I think that might just be blasphemy, seeing as how today is Yom Kippur)
Tomorrow looks like another windy day in the Gorge. Dawn brings 15-18 (mph, not people waiting in line for World Series tickets), and Corridor winds build as the day goes on. Look for 22-25 by mid-afternoon.
High pressure fills across Oregon on Monday, bringing clear skies and light wind. Monday night sees more frontal action, suggesting wind Tuesday.
Have a great day on the water! I'll join you until I have to go to Abruzzo, where I'm cooking up a dessert of apple risotto topped with tart applesauce topped with poached apple topped with pear/wine reduction and homemade caramel sauce.
Print | posted @ Saturday, September 22, 2007 8:08 AM