Mother Nature is handing us a fantastic evening of sailboat racing later on. Remember the deal? Show up at the Marina at 5:30 and start begging for a place on a boat. If you're big and strong, we can use you for ballast, at the very least!
Windsurfers and kiteboarders will also be pleased today! With .09 gradient and an overfed Burdoin Mountain silkworm cloud to start us off, we're looking at good sailing today! (Please don't eat the silkworm, even though it looks plump and delicious. It's a great wind indicator.) Upper level flow has shifted to NWerly, following the emergence of the North Pacific High from its antiseasonal cave-dwelling hibernation. Along with this, low pressure sets up over the Rockies. This setup, a "typical" Gorge setup, favors the Hatchery over the Event Site/Hook area, and should end the terrible gustiness we've seen lately. Once the desert has a chance, sagebrush temps outpace the concrete jungle, bumping winds into the 21-24 range early-mid afternoon. It even looks like winds will shift to Doug's/Rowena later on (as well they should) for a 22-24 session.
Incidentally, I got a phone call last night telling me that The Wall was perfect 4.0 late evening: good swell, wind from the right direction, 5 people on the water. I should have listened to my own advice and gone for a drive! I'm only pointing this out because it wasn't until late in the evening that upper flow shifted from southerly to nw-erly, which appears to be the direction favoring that stretch of the river. It's definitely something to keep in mind. If you want to check the direction of upper flow, call up any looping satellite picture of the PNW and watch which direction the clouds are moving. If there are no clouds, flow is N (bad) or E. You'll know if it's east. =) If it's W-NW, you should see some clouds over the coast range or Portland and be able to make a determination. If it's southerly flow, you'll see clouds - lots of clouds. That is, of course, a crude approximation, but it should tell you when to drive to The Wall.
Hmm. That was a long digression.
Moving on to Thursday... With the NPH hanging tough (like the NKOTB) over the Eastern Pacific, low clouds filter into Portland to start the day. This isn't a guaranteed setup anymore, as desert temps are falling into the 40's at night. However, we're not just relying on thermals now, so I'll say 20-23. Midday looks problematic, as a mini-low shifts overhead. Winds turn more southerly in front of the low (gusty), back off as it passes overhead, and shift to NWerly after it sneaks past the Gorge guards. Basically, we're looking at a significant mid-afternoon lull, with a possible bump to 22-25 after it passes. That may happen in the dark, however.
Friday looks like another day of windsurfing, albeit windsurfing-light. That's like windsurfing on a diet, as opposed to windsurfing on steroids. If you want windsurfing on steroids, head to Pistol River now and for the rest of the week. (I think I'm not doing a good job of staying on topic today) Anyway, models suggest a heat low will develop along the coast, turning winds offshore late Friday. This suggests winds dying throughout the day. However, models are in conflict: they also suggest Pistol River will remain windy Friday, and this won't happen if the heat low shifts. I'll call for less wind at Pistol (4.7 instead of 3.7) and 18-22 in The Gorge.
If you've made it this far, you can have the coast forecast. Here it is: GO TO THE COAST. Yes, I know it's blowing here, but there's a 6-climbing-to-9-foot swell at the coast, and that's paired with small craft advisory north winds. Florence will be great, and Oceanside will catch some wind tomorrow as well. If I didn't have to work this week to make up for my week in Pistol, I'd be outa here!
Don't forget to leave comments at the blog site: http://www.temirawagonfeld.com/windblog.
More importantly, don't forget to have fun on the water today.
And now, I must go to work, or I won't be able to join you until much later!
Print | posted @ Wednesday, September 05, 2007 7:53 AM